The Import Cliff Arrives

For three weeks, analysts have warned that the full effect of the Strait of Hormuz closure had not yet reached California. This week, the data confirms what they predicted: it is here.

California's gasoline inventories averaged 9.44 million barrels over the four weeks ending April 10 — the lowest level in the California Energy Commission's data set, which goes back to 2005. Crude oil stocks fell to 10.09 million barrels, down more than 23% from a year earlier. Combined, the state is running on nine to ten days of supply. That is not a buffer. That is a countdown.

The reason the worst is still ahead comes down to shipping math. California depends on CARB-compliant gasoline from Asian refiners — principally India and South Korea — for roughly 20% of its total supply. Those refiners curtailed most exports as of March 15, but because trans-Pacific shipping takes 25 to 45 days, the corresponding drop in arrivals is only now hitting California ports. Over the next one to two weeks, gasoline imports are expected to drop off sharply. Professor Michael Mische at USC Marshall and Professor James Rector at UC Berkeley published an analysis this week projecting that weekly supply deficits could reach 10 to 20 percent by May, with terminal-level shortages likely to emerge in late April or early May.

At the same time, crude oil imports from the Middle East — roughly 25 to 30% of California's refinery feedstock — are falling off on a similar lag. That means refinery throughput will decline just as gasoline imports drop most sharply. Two supply lines contracting simultaneously into a system that has already drawn its inventories down to record lows.

Californians consume 36 million gallons of gasoline per day. The CEC says it expects enough inventory through mid-May. Rystad Energy's Susan Bell says California's inventory reduction may get worse over the next several weeks.

And here is the part that should anger every Californian who cares about the environment: this imported supply chain generates 3.3 million metric tons of CO2 per year just from the tanker fleet. Edward Ring at the California Policy Center calculated the round-trip shipping emissions from every crude oil source country — Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Colombia, Canada — and found that importing 373 million barrels of oil by sea produces nearly one percent of the state's total greenhouse gas output. Empty tankers returning to port for refills burn about 70% of a laden voyage's fuel. The twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are already the single largest source of air pollution in Southern California.

California produced 402 million barrels of oil per year in 1986. Last year it produced 111 million. The USGS has identified 5.6 billion barrels of recoverable reserves in the Los Angeles Basin alone. The state does not lack oil. It lacks the permits to extract it.

The only near-term mitigation lever, according to Mische and Rector, is to temporarily relax the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and allow national-specification gasoline into the state. But even that would not deliver relief at the pump before mid-May, because California has no inbound fuel pipelines. Every gallon arrives by tanker, by rail, or by truck. Replacing a major pipeline like the San Pablo Bay line would require 760 tanker trucks per day.

This is the structural reality that three decades of policy produced: a state that dismantled its own production, closed its refineries, blocked its pipelines, and now watches record-low fuel inventories drain toward a shortage it cannot fix quickly — while the tanker fleet carrying replacement fuel burns millions of tons of CO2 crossing the Pacific.

Sources: Reuters, CEC, California Globe (Mische/Rector/Silvi analysis), California Policy Center (Edward Ring), AAA, Rystad Energy

California gasoline stocks fall to record lows as Hormuz disruption bites — Reuters
Reuters confirms what the CEC data now shows: the four-week average of California gasoline inventories is the lowest on record. Motorists are paying $5.86 per gallon — 43% above the national average. Professor Mische warns the full effect of declining imports has not yet shown up at the pump.

California Gasoline Supply Outlook: A Disaster in the Making — California Globe
USC's Mische, Berkeley's Rector, and researcher Silvi lay out the timeline: gasoline imports drop sharply this week, refinery throughput declines as Middle Eastern crude runs out, and weekly supply deficits could reach 10–20% by May. Their recommendation: suspend the LCFS immediately and allow national-specification fuel into the state.

How Much CO2 Do Oil Tankers Emit En-Route to California? — California Policy Center
Edward Ring calculates that shipping 373 million barrels of crude oil into California generates 3.3 million metric tons of CO2 per year — round trip. That is nearly 1% of the state's total greenhouse gas emissions, produced entirely because California chose to import rather than extract. A data-driven case that in-state production is the environmentally superior option.

Chevron's Supreme Court win offers oil industry easier path to friendlier courts — E&E News
The Supreme Court ruled 8-0 that Chevron can move a Louisiana coastal erosion lawsuit from state to federal court. The decision broadens the federal officer removal statute and could reshape how climate and environmental lawsuits against oil companies are litigated — including cases pending in California.

As Some Oil Deliveries to US Stop Flowing, California Braces for an Energy Crisis — KQED
KQED reports that California is among the first places in the U.S. to feel the supply sting from the Hormuz closure because of its dependence on Asian refined products and its isolation from domestic fuel pipelines. UC Santa Barbara economics professor Kyle Meng frames the exposure in national security terms.

Week of April 19, 2026 — Source: AAA

California gasoline is essentially unchanged this week — $5.86 versus $5.89 last week. But don't mistake price stability for supply stability. Reuters reported April 16 that prices could stay elevated for months even after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens. The structural damage from refinery closures, regulatory costs, and pipeline isolation will hold California's premium in place regardless of what happens overseas.

WSPA's March 2026 fact sheet puts the total regulatory burden at $1.38 per gallon — the sum of state excise tax (61 cents), federal excise tax (18 cents), Low Carbon Fuel Standard compliance (20 cents), cap-and-trade costs (24 cents), state and local sales tax (13 cents), and underground storage tax (2 cents). That is not a market price. That is a policy price, layered on top of every gallon before crude oil, refining, and distribution costs are even counted.

Data: AAA Gas Prices, WSPA Gas Tax Fact Sheet (March 2026)

The supply timeline is now measurable in weeks, not months.

According to the Mische/Rector/Silvi analysis published April 15, Asian refiners curtailed most CARB-compliant gasoline exports by March 15. With trans-Pacific shipping times of 25 to 45 days, the first wave of missed cargoes is arriving — or rather, not arriving — right now. Over the next one to two weeks, gasoline import volumes are expected to drop sharply, marking the point at which the import shock becomes fully visible at the terminal level.

On the crude side, Middle Eastern oil that typically takes 35 to 50 days to reach California by tanker stopped loading in early March. JPMorgan analysts projected the last pre-crisis Middle Eastern crude deliveries would reach U.S. ports around April 15. That window has now closed.

Replacement crude from South America can eventually cover 70–90% of the Middle Eastern volume, but adapting California refineries to different crude blends requires capital expenditure and time — and produces lower gasoline output in the interim. Atlantic Basin refiners can only replace about 15–20% of the Asian CARB-compliant gasoline supply.

The CEC's statewide gasoline stocks — 9.44 million barrels on a four-week average — are the lowest on record. Crude oil inventories are 10.09 million barrels, down 23% year-over-year. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open on April 17, and oil prices fell 9% on the news, but physical supply recovery takes months, not headlines.

Sources: California Globe (Mische/Rector/Silvi), Reuters, CEC, EIA, JPMorgan

Rep. Pfluger, Sec. Wright Discuss Looming Energy Crisis in California and Nuclear Reactor at ACU — House Energy & Commerce Committee
During the FY2027 DOE budget hearing on April 16, Rep. August Pfluger (R-TX) pressed Energy Secretary Wright on California's energy crisis. Wright's testimony continues the administration's posture that California's energy policy is a federal concern.

Drafted Executive Orders Claw Back CA Energy to Insure US Has Necessary Fuels for National Security — News For Reasonable People
A walkthrough of seven draft Executive Orders sent to President Trump, authored by Mische and co-authors. The proposals include allowing offshore oil production, revoking the LCFS, removing state and local control on oil reserves, and directing California refineries to increase jet and diesel fuel production. Whether the federal government acts on these is the question that matters.

Professor Mische, Mike Ariza, David Blackmon on the Energy Impacts — LinkedIn Live (April 15)
Professor Mische joins Mike Ariza and energy commentator David Blackmon to discuss the real-time energy impacts on California — the supply outlook, federal intervention options, and what comes next. If you missed the live event, the recording is available on LinkedIn.

Iran, China, and the War for Oil Dominance — Trisha Curtis — Dad Saves America
Energy economist and PetroNerds CEO Trisha Curtis breaks down the global energy market, the Hormuz disruption, and why California gas prices are a national security indicator. A useful primer on how U.S. energy dominance fits into the Iran-China geopolitical picture.

The CA4ES Energy Brief is published weekly by Californians for Energy & Science, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. Data-driven energy intelligence for Californians.

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